Analysis: LH

The center of Storm REINHOLD is now located to the south of Iceland, having been located near Greenland in yesterday’s analysis. The central pressure also dropped by 11hPa to 979hPa in the latest available 00UTC ground analysis. The peak gusts continue to be around 110km/h, however higher gusts are possible at exposed locations such as mountain peaks, islands, etc.
The areas that were under a storm watch in yesterday’s analysis have now been placed under a storm warning as it becomes more certain they are going to be hit by winds over 75 km/h within the coming 24 hours. The warning has also been extended to include the far northern coast of France as well as the southwestern coast of Norway.

An ESC storm warning means that gusts over 75km/h are to be expected in an area within the next 24 hours. A storm warning due to storm REINHOLD has been issued for Ireland, all but the far northeast of the UK and the coastal areas of northwestern Europe, including far northern France, the coasts of Belgium and the Netherlands, the German North Sea coast, western and northern Denmark, and the far southwestern coast of Norway.

Below are the ESC overview, warnings & watches:

Analysis: LH

A new storm has formed over the northern Atlantic. This low pressure system, named REINHOLD, is currently located just southeast of the southern tip of Greenland. The central pressure during the latest available analysis at 00UTC was 990hPa, and wind gusts are currently calculated to reach 110km/h. This isn’t sufficient for the storm to be classified as a “severe storm”, however REINHOLD does fit the ESC criteria for a regular European storm. The storm is expected to intensify as it crosses the Atlantic, heading towards the southeast. By Sunday (tomorrow) evening, the center of the low is expected to be located to the north of the British Isles, with storm gusts possible throughout Ireland, the UK and along the northwestern coast of mainland Europe (Netherlands, Germany, Denmark).

Below are the European Windstorm Overview, Warnings and Watches maps:

There is currently a single storm system on the maps of the European Windstorm Center.

The center of Storm PERRYMAN is currently located to the southwest of Iceland, with a central pressure o 975hPa. The wind field, strongest to the northwest of Iceland and off the coast of Greenland, packs peak gusts of around 140km/h currently. The storm is rather extensive, and along a frontal system over the North Sea, storm gusts well above 100km/h are possible. As these front are currently arriving in the southwest of Scandinavia and bringing the wind with them, a storm warning has been issued for the southwestern coastal areas of Norway. Peak gusts of up to around 90 km/h are to be expected in the area within the next 24 hours.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Center maps – European Windstorm Overview, as well as the Warnings and Watches:

The European windstorm season starts each year on the 1st of September, making today the first day of the season 2017/18.

There is currently one storm system that is being tracked by ESC’s European Windstorm Center. This nameless storm is currently located off the coast of Newfoundland over the northern Atlantic. At the 12 UTC the storm had a central pressure of 985hPa and peak gusts of around 110km/h. The storm is expected to weaken as it crosses the Atlantic towards the east but nonetheless will bring windy weather to the British Isles on the weekend, with a chance for storm gusts in some coastal areas. Storm watches have been issued respectively.

Below you can find the European Windstorm Overview as well as the European Windstorm Warnings and Watches:

A rather interesting severe weather situation in Central Europe today, and quite a potent one at that, with ESTOFEX issuing one of its rare Level 3 threats for northeastern Germany. While the cluster of thunderstorms that moved across Germany last night is slowly dying in the northeast, a new one is moving in from France in the southwest, with the strongest individual thunderstorms (as is usual for clusters) being at the southern edge.

There is a lot of potential in the atmosphere, and many parts along the route of the thunderstorms from the southwest to the northeast will reach temperatures over 30°C, some even close to 36°C.

This gives the thunderstorms the abilities to grow into really severe individual storms. The risks include storm gusts that may reach up to 100 to even 125km/h at times, hail with diameters of up to 5 – 8cm, flash flooding (with rain rates of around 40 liters in an hour) and an elevated risk for even strong tornadoes.

The storms will have the energy to continue well beyond sunset and even into the morning hours of Thursday.

++++++++++++++++++++++DEUTSCH+++++++++++++++++++++

Eine ziemlich interessante Unwetterlage heute in Mitteleuropa, die auch durchaus viel Potential aufweist, was ESTOFEX dazu gebracht hat, eine ihrer seltenen Level 3 Warnungen für den Nordosten Deutschlands auszugeben. Während der Gewitter-Cluster der sich letzte Nacht über Deutschland bewegt hat sich im Nordosten jetzt langsam auflöst, bewegt sich schon ein neuer aus Frankreich im Südwesten in das Bundesgebiet. Die stärksten individuellen Gewitter in diesem Cluster sind, wie es normal ist für solche Gruppierungen von Gewittern, derzeit am südlichen Rand zu finden.

Es ist heute viel Potential in der Luft, und viele Orte entlang der route der Gewitter von Südwest nach Nordost werden heute nochmals Höchstwerte über 30°CC, zum Teil auch 36°C, erreichen.

Das ermöglicht es den Gewittern zu kräftigen Unwettern heranzuwachsen. Die Hauptgefahren sind unter anderem Sturm- oder Orkanböen bis 100 oder sogar 125km/h, Hagel mit einem Durchmesser von bis zu 5-8cm, Starkregen (Regenraten bis 40 liter in einer Stunde) und ein erhöhtes Potential sogar für starke Tornados.

Die Unwetter werden die nötige Energie besitzen um bis tief in die Nacht durchzuhalten, manche sogar bis in die Morgenstunden des Donnerstags.

ESTOFEX, in its thunderstorm forecast for today, has issued a rare Level 3 threat for parts of Germany, Poland, Russia and Lithuania.

The main risks in the Level 3 area over Germany and far NW Poland are severe or damaging storm gusts, large or very large hail, flash flooding and the potential for strong tornadoes.

The main risks in the Level 3 area over the far NE of Poland, Kaliningrad, and parts of Lithuania are severe or damaging storm gusts, large or very large hail, flash flooding, and the potential for strong tornadoes.

In the Level 2 area stretching all the way from France and Switzerland to Latvia and Lithuania, the main risks are severe wind gusts, large or very large hail, flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes.

In the Level 1 area, which reaches all the way from Spain to Estonia and Russia, there are the same risks as in the Level 2 area, however there is less potential for severe development.

An interesting situation today as hot air from the southwest meets a cold front advancing from the north sea, which will be located approximately from the German Saarland to the Baltic coast in the northeast of the country by the evening. Though no widespread thunderstorm activity is predicted (with exception of heat thunderstorms in Austria, especially over the Alps), individual thunderstorms are expected to form, and have the potential to become severe, with large hail, storm gusts, flash flooding and an increased possibility for tornado development.

Forecaster: LH

++++++++++++++++ENGLISH+++++++++++++++

Thunderstorms are possible throughout all of central Europe today, fueled by the temperatures that will reach around 30°C in most parts, and kicked off by a cold front moving in from the west / southwest. Especially in the eastern and southern parts of the forecast area, the potential for strong thunderstorms is given.
The risk of severe thunderstorms is highest in Slovenia, where there may be (in the order of likeliness) torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and the potential for tornadoes given. To a lesser degree, the risk of severe storm gusts is also given in Slovenia.
Throughout most of the parts labeled “increased risk of strong thunderstorms”, the main risks will be severe wind gusts (up to 100km/h likely), Hail (up to 3cm in diameter likely) and heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding.
For the areas to the west, the main risk is torrential rainfall and the potential for (flash)flooding.

++++++++++++++++++++++++DEUTSCH++++++++++++++++++++++

Gewitter sind heute in ganz Mitteleuropa möglich, angeheizt durch die Wärme (vielerorts werden heute erneut um die 30°C erreicht), und ausgelöst durch eine sich aus Westen / Südwesten nähernde Kaltfront. Besonders in den östlichen und südlichen Teilen des Vorhersagegebiets besteht das Potential für Unwetter.
Die Gefahr vor Unwettern ist in Slowenien am höchsten. Dort besteht die Gefahr (sortiert nach absteigender Wahrscheinlichkeit) vor Starkregen, großem bis zu sehr großem Hagel, sowie dem Potential für Tornados. In geringerem Maße besteht auch in Slowenien die Gefahr vor Sturmböen.
In den Gebieten die mit “increased risk of strong thunderstorms” markiert wurden werden die Hauptgefahren Sturmböen (bis zu 100km/h zu erwarten), Hagel (bis zu 3cm in Durchmesser zu erwarten), sowie Starkregen mit der Gefahr vor Überflutungen sein.
In den Gegenden westlich davon geht die Hauptgefahr von Starkem Regen und damit einhergehenden Überflutungen aus.

Below is the convective forecast issued this morning.

Grün: Gewitter Möglich
Gelb: Gewitter Wahrscheinlich
Orange: Erhöhtes Potential für Unwetter

(C) ESTOFEX European Storm Forecast Experiment. Forecast by DAFIS.

ESTOFEX decided to issue a level 2 for northeastern Spain and parts of France, with the main risks being severe wind gusts, excessive rainfall and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for N Spain, France, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, S Belgium, Luxemburg and the Czech Republic, with the main risks being severe wind gusts, large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was also issued for N Italy, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, with the main risks being severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation, as well as a

level 1 for E Ukraine and SW Russia, with the main risk being excessive precipitation.

Thunderstorms are likely throughout northern Spain, France and much of central Europe (except the Netherlands and northern Germany), and the Balkans today, as well as parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia.

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 0700UTC on the 26.12.2016

There are currently 2 storm systems in the region.

Severe storm BARBARA will be moving through northern and central Europe today, bringing with it wind gusts in part over 200km/h. BARBARA is currently located in the North Sea with a central pressure of 951hPa. The storm field is largely located to the south of the storm’s center. Storm BARBARA is expected to move across Scandinavia and then reach parts of central Europe in the coming night. Severe storm warnings were issued for the North Sea Islands, where the storm is already raging at hurricane-force, and also for the north of the UK, where the currently highest wind gusts are being registered. Later, the coast of Norway and afterwards southern Norway, Sweden, the entirety of Denmark and some Baltic islands will be battered by hurricane-forced winds. In the coming night, the wind field will move further inland on mainland Europe (mainly Germany and Poland), and will also reach major cities such as Berlin. Storm warnings were issued. As the storm loses structure tomorrow, there may be storm gusts in other parts of Scandinavia, in the Baltic and in central eastern Europe as well; storm watches were issued.
Peak gusts of storm Barbara:
238km/h – Cairngorm Mountains, UK
183km/h – Aonach Mor, UK
176km/h – Cairnwell, UK
172km/h – Soervaag, DK
172km/h – Thorshavn, DK

A new severe storm has formed off the coast of Canada, with peak gusts exceeding 135km/h and a central pressure of 980hPa. It is expected to cross the Atlantic today and into tomorrow, but will miss mainland Europe and instead dissipate as it moves to the northeast of Iceland.

Below are the  ESC Overview as well as warnings and watches maps.