English version can be found below the German text

Am heutigen Montag zieht ein kräftiger Sturm, benannt “Bennet”, einmal quer über Deutschland und bringt verbreitet schwere Sturmböen um oder über 90 km/h. Im Wesentlichen ist unsere gestrige Vorhersage noch korrekt, also bitte einmal HIER nachlesen.

Hier die Wetterlage, wie sie heute um 13:00 Lokalzeit erwartet wird:

Entlang und vor allem Rückseitig der Kaltfront, die sich im Laufe des Tages von West nach Ost über Deutschland bewegt, ist mit schweren Sturmböen zu rechnen.

Schon heute Früh ist es in Westeuropa ziemlich windig, mit verbreiteten Böen um 80 km/h in Belgien und um 100 km/h an der Nordseeküste:

Im Grunde genommen ist ein solcher Wintersturm nichts außergewöhnliches, allerdings bedarf eine derartige Wettersituation immer erhöhter Vorsicht und Aufmerksamkeit. Was heute allerdings besonders ist: es ist gleichzeitig Rosenmontag, und so werden viele Leute bei Umzügen auf der Straße sein. Somit ist erhöhtes Potential für eventuelle Unfälle gegeben. Seien Sie allenfalls vorsichtig und achten Sie auf das Wetter; setzen Sie sich nicht leicht vermeidbaren Gefahren aus.

Vorhersage: LH

English

Today, a strong storm by the name of Bennet will pass over Germany, bringing widespread severe storm gusts of 90 km/h and above. Overall, yesterday’s forecast is still correct, so go have a read of that HERE.

Below we have the predicted atmospheric conditions for 12UTC (13:00 local time):

Along and especially behind the cold front, which will move from west to east across the country, severe storm gusts are to be expected.

This morning is already bringing some substantial wind to Western Europe, with widespread gusts of around 80 km/h in Belgium and speeds topping 100 km/h in the North Sea:

In general, a winter storm like this is nothing out of the ordinary, though heightened caution and awareness is always advised in a situation like this. What is different today is that at the same time, it is shrove Monday, so there will be many people attending parades out in the open. Therefore, a heightened potential for accidents is given. No matter what you are doing today, be cautious and keep an eye on the weather; don’t expose yourself to easily avoidable risks.

Forecaster: LH

English version can be found below.

An und hinter der Kaltfront des Sturmtiefs “Bennet”, dessen Kern sich morgen im Laufe des Tages von den Britischen Inseln kommend über die Nordsee schließlich in die Ostsee verlagert, sind schwere Sturmböen zu rechnen. Schon seit einigen Tagen rechnen alle Wettermodelle mit vergleichsweise kleinen Unterschieden mit diesem Sturm, der das gesamte Bundesgebiet Deutschlands betreffen wird.

Oben haben wir die vorhergesagte Wetterlage für Montag, 12UTC (also 13:00 Ortszeit). Man beachte das Tief mit Kern in der Nordsee. Der Prognostizierte Kerndruck liegt bei 975hPa. Von dem Tief erstreckt sich eine Kaltfront über Deutschland, die Alpen, Südfrankreich bis nach Spanien und Portugal. Besonders entlang dieser Kaltfront, die sich (in Richtung der Dreiecke) im Wesentlichen von West nach Ost über Deutschland bewegen wird, sowie hinter ihr, ist mit den stärksten Sturmböen zu rechnen. Generell gilt auf einer Wetterkarte: Je näher die Isobaren (also die Linien gleichen Luftdrucks) zusammenliegen, desto stärker der Wind.

Besonders im Norden Deutschlands können sich sogar einzelne Gewitter bilden. Diese bergen dann die Gefahr in sich, noch deutlich stärkere Böen die eventuell auch Orkanstärke erreichen könnten (d.h. über 120 km/h) mit sich zu bringen.

Einige Vorhersagemodelle rechnen derzeit auch mit der Ausbildung einer Böenfront im Norden Deutschlands, an deren Vorderkannte deutlich stärkere Sturmböen als im meisten Restlichen Land zu erwarten wären. Das sieht man auf der Kart hier ganz gut:

Das Vorhersagemodell von Meteo-France rechnet zwar im Allgemeinen mit einem weniger starken Sturm als die sonstigen Vorhersagen, allerdings erwartet es auch eben die vorhergenannte “Squall-Line” (Böenfront) im Norden Deutschlands, und rechnet innerhalb dieser sogar mit Böen von bis zu 140 km/h. Zwar besteht die Möglichkeit dafür, da allerdings die restlichen Vorhersagemodelle mit einer nicht ganz so extremen Ausprägung rechnen, ist aber relativ unwahrscheinlich.

Auch hier erkennt man die prognostizierte Böenfront und ihre Position jeweils zur vollen Stunde, da sie sich, wie der Rest des Wetters, von West nach Ost über das Land bewegt:

Die Karte oben zeigt die höchsten Windgeschwindigkeiten an, mit denen dieses Modell von Kachelmannwetter im Laufe des gesamten Tages rechnet. Man sieht, dass insgesamt fast überall mit Sturmböen oder auch schweren Sturmböen von um oder auch über 90km/h zu rechnen ist. Evtl. kann es auf den Berggipfeln, an den Küsten und an sonstigen exponierten Orten auch noch etwas darüber kommen. Außerdem sollte man die mögliche Böenfront im Norden Deutschlands im Auge behalten, entlang der es – vor allem in Kombination mit eventuell auftretenden Gewittern – doch noch etwas happiger kommen kann.

Vorhersage: LH

English

Along and behind the cold front of a storm by the namet of “Bennet”, which will move from the British Isles by way of the North Sea and into the Baltic Sea over the course of the day tomorrow, severe storm gusts are to be expected. Forecast models have been expecting this storm for several days and with relatively small discrepancies between them, and expect it to affect all of Germany.

Above, you can find the predicted atmospheric conditions for Monday, 12UTC (so 13:00 local time). Note the low pressure area, the center of which is located in the North Sea with a predicted pressure of 975 hPa. Coming from the low, a cold front extends across Germany, the Alps, southern France and all the way to Spain and Portugal. It will progress in direction of the triangles, so largely from west to east across Germany. Along as well as behind this front is where the strongest storm gusts are to be expected. A general rule for weather maps is: the closer together the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are, the windier the conditions.

Especially in the north of Germany, some thunderstorms may form, too. These carry the risk of bringing even stronger storm gusts within them and in their vicinity. These gusts may reach hurricane force, so exceed 120 km/h.

Some forecast models currently also expect the formation of a squall line (a gust front) in the north of Germany, at the leading edge of which there could be notably stronger storm gusts than in the rest of the country. You can see this potential situation quite well on this map:

The forecast model by Meteo-France expects a weaker storm in much of Germany than most of the other forecasts, however it is also predicting the aforementioned squall line in the north of the country, and expects it to bring wind speeds of up to 140 km/h. Though the possibility of this taking place cannot be ruled out, the other forecast models don’t expect quite as extreme wind speeds, and therefore, it seems unlikely that the squall line should reach such an intensity.

In the next map, you can also see the squall line. In this case, you can see its location at the top of each hour, as it progresses from west to east (along with all the rest of the weather) across Germany:

The above map shows the highest wind speeds that this weather model by Kachelmannwetter expects over the course of the entire day. You can see that almost everywhere, storm gusts or severe storm gusts of around but also above 90 km/h are expected. Coasts, mountain peaks and other exposed areas may experience even higher wind speeds. Furthermore, one should keep an eye on the potential squall line in Norther Germany, which – especially in combination with possible thunderstorms – might pose a particular risk to life and property.

Forecast: LH

Storm ELENA, which has crossed the UK in the night from Thursday to Friday and its currently making its way into the North Sea, will bring a good deal of wind to northern central Europe today.

The storm currently has a central pressure of 986 hPa and packs wind speeds of over 140km/h, however is expected to further intensify, eventually reaching peak gusts of up to 190km/h in its center.

Denmark will likely be the hardest hit in terms of wind speeds; especially in exposed locations and at the northwestern coast, peak gusts may reach full hurricane-force, possibly exceeding 160km/h.
The Netherlands should expect stormy conditions to commence within the next few hours, bringing wind speeds of 70-100km/h to much of the country and peaks of up to around 120km/h at the coasts.
In Germany, the North Sea coast and its islands should brace themselves for storm gusts in the range of 100 to 120km/h. Further inland, a strong cold front will move from west to east over the north of Germany, bringing not only a drop in temperatures by up to 20°C in very short time, but also potentially hazardous storm gusts which may locally exceed 100km/h.
This same cold front will move into Poland, affected especially the west and northwest of the country before it lessens in intensity overnight.
In Sweden and Norway, storm gusts are mainly expected at the southern coasts and in exposed locations such as mountain peaks, however there are uncertainties in the forecast and how far north the wind field will reach.

Below are the Windstorm overview and the windstorm warnings and watches for Europe.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

Storm DORCAS is currently impacting especially the northern parts of the UK, bringing storm gusts with peaks of up to 159km/h (registered at Cairnwell, UK). However, this storm is expected to weaken as it moves away from the British Isles today, only bringing storm gusts to Iceland later on.

A new storm is on the way though; the currently still unnamed storm with a central pressure of 983 hPa is currently located to the southwest of the British Isles, already packing wind speeds over 115km/h and expected to further increase. Wind speeds in Ireland are expected to soon pick up, and hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected even far inland and in non-exposed locations. However, the coasts will by far experience the worst conditions, with seriously impressive wind speeds possibly exceeding 180km/h being predicted. By the afternoon, the storm will have moved on to the UK, where especially Scotland will receive widespread hurricane-forced winds; gusts are expected to reach up to and maybe even exceed 170km/h here as well. The remaining, more southern parts of the UK will also experience stormy conditions, however to a lesser extent than in Scotland. Through the night, the storm will move on, battering the coast of Norway.

A storm watch has been issued as well for the coasts of northwestern Europe due to a potential storm on Friday.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Warnings and Watches.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

Forecaster: LH

The former Hurricane “HELENE”, currently located to the southwest of Ireland with a central pressure of 987 hPa and peak wind gusts of around 120km/h, is expected to move across the British Isles today.

Compared to earlier forecasts, this latest forecast run suggests that the storm will be considerably weaker and will likely pose minimal risks to the areas it crosses. Ireland will be reached first, especially the western coast; peak storm gusts may reach 90 or 100km/h. The storm field is later expected to cross the southern UK, where storm gusts should not exceed 70km/h in most places. Highest wind speeds will be observed at exposed locations and at the coast.
Later, the wind field of former hurricane HELENE may also stripe the coast of the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway; however, here, too, peak gusts should not exceed about 85km/h.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and the Storm Warnings and Watches:

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

Forecaster: LH

There are two storm systems currently in the vicinity of Europe.

A weak storm has formed to the southwest of Iceland, currently holding wind speeds of just 70km/h and a central pressure of 998hPa. The storm is expected to slightly intensify as it approaches ICELAND as the day progresses. In about 12 hours, the first storm gusts may reach the island, and wind speeds will stay elevated, especially at exposed locations, for hours to come.

The still unnamed storm located to the west of the British Isles has intensified over night, now holding wind speeds of around 110km/h and with its central pressure having dropped to 1008 hPa. The storm is expected to further intensify as it makes its way towards IRELAND and the UK.
Wind speeds will start picking up at the western coast of Ireland this evening. Especially the western and northern coasts of Ireland will be affected; here, gusts up to or exceeding 110km/h are possible. Wind conditions will stay calmer further inland, but there may still be storm gusts. Storm warnings and watches have been issued accordingly (see below).
The wind field of the storm will reach Scotland in the coming night; especially in the Scottish Highlands, the Isles and the coasts, partially hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected. Wind speeds may exceed 120km/h. As it is still unclear how far south the wind field will stretch, a storm watch has been issued for large parts of the UK.
Between 36 and 48 hours from now, the storm field is expected to reach the coast of Norway, where gusts of around 100km/h are to be expected.
Due to uncertainties in prediction, no forecasts are given for more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and Storm Warnings & Watches.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

Forecaster: LH

There is currently one storm system in the proximity of Europe. The unnamed storm which had a central pressure of 1012 hPa at 18:00 UTC and currently packs estimated peak gusts of around 100km/h is expected to further intensify as it moves eastwards in the next 36 hours.

Ireland will be the first to be affected by the storm, with gusts of up to 110km/h possible along much of the coastline, though weaker winds are to be expected inland. The storm will continue to move northeastwards, affecting Scotland and bringing hurricane-forced gusts especially to the highlands, coasts and islands; gusts of up to 130km/h are very well possible, locally wind speeds may even exceed 130km/h.

The storm is expected to continue moving northeastwards and may later affect Norway, however due to uncertainties in predictions, ESC watches are not issued more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC overview, as well as ESC European Windstorm Warnings & Watches.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

High temperatures combined with relatively high humidity (thanks to increased evaporation) will provide a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorms in much of central Europe today. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to move over the BeNeLux and into Germany currently (08.40 CEST), and will continue to move eastwards across Germany as the day progresses. They are expected to further intensify, with the potential for some storms to bring severe weather conditions. The possibility of storms clustering together to form long-lived “mesoscale convective systems” is also given. The main risks stemming from today’s thunderstorms are Large Hail with diameters potentially exceeding 2cm, as well as storm gusts which may exceed 120km/h in some thunderstorms, especially in northern Germany, and exceed 90km/h in many cases. Heavy rainfall is also not to be ruled out, with rain rates of up to 30l/sq. m in an hour certainly a realistic possibility. The potential for widespread flash-flooding is limited, however, due to the speed at which the thunderstorms are expected to move and the nature of the the individual storm cells.
In Switzerland and southwestern Germany, conditions look favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms, bringing a further elevated potential for severe weather.

Issued 2018.05.15 at 06:00 CEST

Wide parts of Germany and Central Europe present the right conditions for the formation of thunderstorms today. This is due to the unstable layering of the atmosphere which, in combination with the energy that the sun provides, will lead to the formation of local heat-induced thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Most of these thunderstorms will be rather narrowly confined, meaning that if one town is hit by a thunderstorm, the neighboring town may stay entirely dry.

The general direction the thunderstorms will move across Germany is from Northeast to Southwest.

The main risk stemming from today’s thunderstorms is strong rain of between 20 and 40 liters per square meter in short time (under an hour). Flash flooding can take place, which can result in traffic delays and property damage. Further, in and around thunderstorms, storm gusts of up to 70km/h are possible. Also small hail, which will in the most cases not exceed a diameter of 2cm, is not to be ruled out. Hail with more than 2 or 3cm in diameter, tornadoes, as well as strong, structured thunderstorms are unlikely under today’s conditions.

If possible, keep yourself informed about the current weather situation.

Below, you will find the “Convective Forecast” for Central Europe.