Category: Severe Weather

A series of very warm days was ended yesterday as intense thunderstorms erupted all throughout central Europe.

ESTOFEX had issued a level 2 for eastern Germany, and a level one for much of the rest of the country in the morning.

Throughout central and eastern Germany, severe thunderstorms brought hail, storm gusts and flooding with them. In the state of Brandenburg, a tornado was reported.

Cyclone “Debbie” made landfall in Australia today, packing winds of around 150km/h and gusting to over 200km/h. Thankfully, the storm is moving ashore in a fairly sparsely populated part of the country.

“Debbie” is moving quite slowly, making the most significant risk from the storm the rain, rather than the wind. In less than three days, over 400 liters of rain per square meter are expected to fall in some regions – below is the latest forecast map by the German weather service DWD:

A low pressure are by the name of “GREGOR” has brought winter weather to parts of Spain. Snow fell down to areas only 500 meters above sea level. Thunderstorms with sleet and strong snowfall are still spread over the Iberian peninsula. The winter weather, which was caused by an advance of cold air from the Arctic into the region, resulted in school being cancelled for over 8,000 students.

The low pressure area will continue to linger in southwestern Europe and bring strong showers and thunderstorms to the region in the coming days. The Balearic Islands, for example, should expect thunderstorms with a lot of rain and also possible storm gusts on Friday.

Nieve primaveral pic.twitter.com/utQv1EoKxl

— Maripaz Brugos (@Maripazbrugos) March 22, 2017

What is the forecast?

Fri, 20:00 – Sat, 13:00: Increased chance of thunderstorms

An upper low pressure system is expected to move over the western Mediterranean today and tomorrow, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms with partly extreme amounts of rain. The upper low will advect cold air from much further north to the Mediterranean, where the temperature difference between the surface of the ocean and the cold air up in the atmosphere will fuel the formation of showers and thunderstorms.

The first showers and thunderstorms have started forming around the balearic islands. The center of the low pressure system is expected to gradually move towards the east, being located between Sardinia and Tunisia in the coming night, and so the rain will also move east. The rain is rotating counter-clockwise around the center of the low, and is expected to push against the north African coast from the north, and the mountains of Corsica from the east, resulting in the highest amounts of precipitation being expected there. Within two days, well over 100 liters of rain per square meter may fall in these regions, as seen on the map below:

A powerful Mistral raged in the Western Mediterranean yesterday. The Mistral is a powerful wind that moves south through the valley of the river Rhone and out onto the Mediterranean, caused by significantly lower air pressure at one end of the valley compared to the other. Currently, a low pressure area is located over Italy, providing the exact conditions necessary for the formation of a mistral – you can clearly see the low pressure system on the 00UTC UK Met Office ground analysis:

Peak gusts in southern France and the gulf of Lyon reached hurricane force, with one station reporting 161km/h. The Mistral has largely dissipated since yesterday.

A massive storm is currently moving through the northern Atlantic, with a central pressure of 929hPa and wind gusts exceeding 200km/h at its southern flank. The storm is expected to move towards the northeast and bring storm gusts of over 100km/h to large parts of the UK and Ireland.
The current satellite image gives us a stunning view of the storm:

This morning many people in Germany and parts of Austria woke up to fresh snow outside their homes. The current air mass is quite cool but nonetheless moist thanks to its origin from the Arctic, and therefore poses ideal conditions for snow to fall.