2017.09.10 – ESC European Windstorm Update: Storm Warnings for British Isles and Northwestern Europe

Analysis: LH

The center of Storm REINHOLD is now located to the south of Iceland, having been located near Greenland in yesterday’s analysis. The central pressure also dropped by 11hPa to 979hPa in the latest available 00UTC ground analysis. The peak gusts continue to be around 110km/h, however higher gusts are possible at exposed locations such as mountain peaks, islands, etc.
The areas that were under a storm watch in yesterday’s analysis have now been placed under a storm warning as it becomes more certain they are going to be hit by winds over 75 km/h within the coming 24 hours. The warning has also been extended to include the far northern coast of France as well as the southwestern coast of Norway.

An ESC storm warning means that gusts over 75km/h are to be expected in an area within the next 24 hours. A storm warning due to storm REINHOLD has been issued for Ireland, all but the far northeast of the UK and the coastal areas of northwestern Europe, including far northern France, the coasts of Belgium and the Netherlands, the German North Sea coast, western and northern Denmark, and the far southwestern coast of Norway.

Below are the ESC overview, warnings & watches:

 

2017.09.09 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches: Storm REINHOLD heading for British Isles

A new storm has formed over the northern Atlantic. This low pressure system, named REINHOLD, is currently located just southeast of the southern tip of Greenland. The central pressure during the latest available analysis at 00UTC was 990hPa, and wind gusts are currently calculated to reach 110km/h. This isn’t sufficient for the storm to be classified as a “severe storm”, however REINHOLD does fit the ESC criteria for a regular European storm. The storm is expected to intensify as it crosses the Atlantic, heading towards the southeast. By Sunday (tomorrow) evening, the center of the low is expected to be located to the north of the British Isles, with storm gusts possible throughout Ireland, the UK and along the northwestern coast of mainland Europe (Netherlands, Germany, Denmark).

Below are the European Windstorm Overview, Warnings and Watches maps:

 

2017.09.07 – Hurricane IRMA is breaking records

Analysis by LH

Category five hurricane “IRMA” continues to rage after passing over the northern islands of the lesser Antilles and the British Virgin Islands, with sustained winds reaching up to 300km/h and a central pressure of only 916hPa.

The storm is the longest to have sustained such high wind speeds since the beginning of the satellite observation era in 1966.

Hurricane Irma over the Atlantic on September 6th. Image: NOAA/GOES

 

What is the forecast?

As of now, it looks like the storm will continue to move towards the west-northwest until Friday, when it will turn quite sharply and continue towards the north-northwest. As of now, the center of Irma is expected to be within 50 miles of Miami on Sunday Morning.

 

Warnings and Watches

Forecast, Warnings and Watches for Hurricane Irma. Image: NOAA / NHC

 

A hurricane warning has been issued for the northern parts of the island Hispaniola, with a tropical storm warning being in effect for much of the rest. Hurricane Irma has the potential to be a very serious storm for the Bahamas as well, and hurricane warnings have been issued for the islands. Irma, with extremely high winds and also a significant storm surge, will pose a serious threat to all residents; hence residents of the Bahamas should immediately begin preparations. A hurricane watch (and partial tropical storm warning) have been issued also for Cuba, as it is possible that hurricane-forced winds strike the island.

The entirety of Florida is currently within the 5-day uncertainty area for Hurricane Irma, so residents would be advised to take some general preparations and keep a close eye on the development and track of Hurricane Irma. The National Hurricane Center will issue warnings and watches when details become clearer.

2017.90.05 – European Windstorm Center: Storm Warning for Norway

There is currently a single storm system on the maps of the European Windstorm Center.

The center of Storm PERRYMAN is currently located to the southwest of Iceland, with a central pressure o 975hPa. The wind field, strongest to the northwest of Iceland and off the coast of Greenland, packs peak gusts of around 140km/h currently. The storm is rather extensive, and along a frontal system over the North Sea, storm gusts well above 100km/h are possible. As these front are currently arriving in the southwest of Scandinavia and bringing the wind with them, a storm warning has been issued for the southwestern coastal areas of Norway. Peak gusts of up to around 90 km/h are to be expected in the area within the next 24 hours.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Center maps – European Windstorm Overview, as well as the Warnings and Watches:

 

2017.09.05 – Wettervorhersage für Berlin / Weather Forecast for Berlin

Wettervorhersage für Berlin & Umgebung, Ausgegeben 2017.09.05 um 05:15 MESZ

Weather Forecast for Berlin & Surrounding, Issued 2017.09.05 at 05:15 CEST

 

HEUTE beginnt der Tag überwiegend sonnig. Im weiteren Tagesverlauf werden dann aus Westen zwar Wolken aufziehen, allerdings bleibt es voraussichtlich den ganzen Tag über trocken und maximal wechselnd bewölkt. Die Temperaturen liegen in der Früh bei 11°C, werden aber Tagsüber nochmals angenehme 24°C erreichen. Der Wind wird meist leicht sein und überwiegend aus Nordwesten kommen.

MORGEN ist es wechselhaft und es ziehen Regenschauer und auch einzelne GEWITTER über das Vorhersagegebiet. Die Regenschauer können zum Teil kräftig ausfallen, und lokale ÜBERFLUTUNGEN können nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Die Temperaturen werden von 15°C in der Früh bis 23°C am frühen Nachmittag reichen. Der Wind wird leicht bis mäßig sein und aus Südwesten, später Westen, kommen. Am Abend besteht die Gefahr vor WINDBÖEN bis 50km/h.

Am DONNERSTAG beruhigt sich das Wetter wieder etwas. Zwar bleibt es wechselnd bewölkt und am Nachmittag kann es auch noch Regenschauer geben, sollte dennoch relativ viel die Sonne scheinen. Die Temperaturen reichen von 11 bis 20°C.

 

WEITERE AUSSICHTEN:

Freitag: Regnerisch, 11 bis 20°C

Samstag: Regen, 14 bis 18°C

Sonntag: Bedeckt, 10 bis 20°C

Montag: Regnerisch, 11 bis 18°C

Dienstag: Regnerisch, 12 bis 17°C

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++ENGLISH+++++++++++++++++

TODAY will start off largely sunny. Over the course of the day, clouds will start moving in from the west, but nonetheless it is expected to stay dry throughout the day and only partly cloudy. The temperatures this morning are at 11°C and will reach comfortable 24°C later on today. The wind will be mostly light and come from the northwest.

TOMORROW the weather will be rather inconsistent, with rain showers and possibly a few THUNDERSTORMS moving across the forecast area. The rain showers may at times be quite strong, and the potential for FLASH FLOODING cannot be ruled out. The temperatures will range from around 15°C in the morning up to 23°C in the early afternoon hours. The wind will be light to moderate and come from the southwest, later west. Towards the evening there may be WIND GUSTS of up to 50km/h.

On THURSDAY, the weather will be a bit calmer again. There will be periods of cloud and periods of sun, but rain showers are only to be expected in the afternoon. The temperatures will range from 11 to 20°C.

 

TREND:

Friday: Rainy, 11 to 20°C

Saturday: Rain, 14 to 18°C

Sunday: Overcast, 10 to 20°C

Monday: Rainy, 11 to 18°C

Tuesday: Rainy, 12 to 17°C

2017.09.04 – Wettervorhersage für Berlin / Weather Forecast for Berlin

Wettervorhersage für Berlin & Umgebung, Ausgegeben 2017.09.04 05:30 MESZ

Weather Forecast for Berlin & surrounding, Issued 2017.09.04 05:30 CEST

 

HEUTE bleibt es den ganzen Tag lang überwiegend sonnig. Dabei liegen die Temperaturen in der Früh noch bei 10°C und es kann stellenweise NEBEL geben, im Tagesverlauf ist dann aber mit Höchstwerten von bis zu 22°C zu rechnen und der Nebel wird sich recht rasch auflösen. Der Wind wird überwiegend leicht sein und aus Nordwesten kommen.

MORGEN ist es anfangs noch heiter, doch später zieht der Himmel von Westen her immer weiter zu. Die Temperaturen beginnen bei etwa 11°C und werden Tagsüber bis zu 24°C erreichen.

Am MITTWOCH ist es von Anfang an Regnerisch. Im Tagesverlauf geht der Regen dann mehr und mehr in Schauer mit längeren und zum Teil auch sonnigen Phasen über.  Die Temperaturen reichen von 15 bis 22°C.

 

WEITERE AUSSICHTEN:

Donnerstag: Wechselnd bewölkt, 12 bis 21°C

Freitag: Teils wolkig, teils sonnig, 10 bis 21°C

Samstag: Regnerisch, 15 bis 18°C

Sonntag: Regen, 12 bis 19°C, STURMBÖEN

Montag: Schauer, 11 bis 19°C, STURMBÖEN

 

+++++++++++++++++++++ENGLISH+++++++++++++++++++++++

TODAY it will stay largely sunny throughout the day. The temperatures this morning are at only around 10°C and there are patches of FOG, but later maxima of up to 22°C are expected and the fog will soon dissipate. The wind will be largely light and come from the northwest.

TOMORROW will start off quite nicely, but later it will become more and more cloudy. The temperatures will start off at around 11°C and reach up to 24°C during the day.

On WEDNESDAY, it will be rainy right from the start. Over the course of the day, the rain will turn more and more into showers, possibly even with sunny phases in between. The temperatures will range from 15 to 22°C.

 

TREND:

Thursday: Partly cloudy, 12 to 21°C

Friday: Partly cloudy, partly cloudy, 10 to 21°C

Saturday: Rainy, 15 to 18°C

Sunday: Rain, 12 to 19°C, STORM GUSTS

Monday: Showers, 11 to 19°C, STORM GUSTS

 

2017.09.01 – European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches: Start of the season with storm over the Atlantic; watches for Ireland, UK.

The European windstorm season starts each year on the 1st of September, making today the first day of the season 2017/18.

There is currently one storm system that is being tracked by ESC’s European Windstorm Center. This nameless storm is currently located off the coast of Newfoundland over the northern Atlantic. At the 12 UTC the storm had a central pressure of 985hPa and peak gusts of around 110km/h. The storm is expected to weaken as it crosses the Atlantic towards the east but nonetheless will bring windy weather to the British Isles on the weekend, with a chance for storm gusts in some coastal areas. Storm watches have been issued respectively.

Below you can find the European Windstorm Overview as well as the European Windstorm Warnings and Watches:

 

2017.08.17 – Hurricane GERT

Currently there isn’t too much to report about European weather; we are not facing the first major windstorm of the season, nor are there any severe thunderstorms of the sorts we had in the past few weeks.

However, if we look west towards the northern Atlantic, you will see a mass of clouds. This is Hurricane GERT, currently a category two storm. This hurricane will not make landfall in North America, but instead will continue towards the northeast, towards Europe, while weakening. Ahead of the weakening storm, warm air will be moved from the southwest to western and central Europe, bringing these regions a few more summer days.

Hurricane GERT off the coast of North America. Satellite image (c) Kachelmannwetter.de

2017.08.06 – Gewitter in Graz (Thunderstorm in Graz) – Fotobericht (Photo Report)

Zwar war die Lage heute eigentlich ganz gut (trotz eher gemäßigter Temperaturen), doch in Graz ist es bis zum Abend eher ruhig geblieben. Dann bildete sich zwar eine kleine, regenintensive Zelle ziemlich genau über der Stadt, doch viel konnte ich davon nicht sehen. Ich beschloss dennoch, vorderseitig der von Kärnten herannahenden Gewitter auf den Schloßberg zu fahren – nur für den Fall, dass es was zu sehen geben würde.

Die Gewitter verloren zwar über der Packalpe zwischen Kärnten und der Steiermark deutlich an Kraft, schafften es aber dann doch noch bis nach Graz. In der Ferne waren schon dunklere Wolken zu sehen:

Zwischenzeitlich war der Himmel im Westen auch recht hagelig-grün (sieht man auf dem Foto leider nicht so gut) – dann leistete aber die Hagelabwehr ihre Arbeit.

Stetig kam die Schauer- / Gewitterlinie näher:

Zwischenzeitlich bildete sich dann noch etwas fast Shelfcloud-artiges, mit zum Teil doch noch ganz netten Strukturen.

Und dann kam auch schon der Regen – zum Teil der Kern des Gewitters, zum Teil aber auch das Werk der Hagelabwehr.

Das Gewitter – mitsamt stürmischen Böen und viel, viel Regen – habe ich dann in einem kleinen (leider aber auf der Seite offenen) Hütterl miterlebt.

2017.08.01 – Convective Forecast: Severe Thunderstorms Likely / Vorhersage: Unwetter zu erwarten

 

A rather interesting severe weather situation in Central Europe today, and quite a potent one at that, with ESTOFEX issuing one of its rare Level 3 threats for northeastern Germany. While the cluster of thunderstorms that moved across Germany last night is slowly dying in the northeast, a new one is moving in from France in the southwest, with the strongest individual thunderstorms (as is usual for clusters) being at the southern edge.

There is a lot of potential in the atmosphere, and many parts along the route of the thunderstorms from the southwest to the northeast will reach temperatures over 30°C, some even close to 36°C.

This gives the thunderstorms the abilities to grow into really severe individual storms. The risks include storm gusts that may reach up to 100 to even 125km/h at times, hail with diameters of up to 5 – 8cm, flash flooding (with rain rates of around 40 liters in an hour) and an elevated risk for even strong tornadoes.

The storms will have the energy to continue well beyond sunset and even into the morning hours of Thursday.

++++++++++++++++++++++DEUTSCH+++++++++++++++++++++

Eine ziemlich interessante Unwetterlage heute in Mitteleuropa, die auch durchaus viel Potential aufweist, was ESTOFEX dazu gebracht hat, eine ihrer seltenen Level 3 Warnungen für den Nordosten Deutschlands auszugeben. Während der Gewitter-Cluster der sich letzte Nacht über Deutschland bewegt hat sich im Nordosten jetzt langsam auflöst, bewegt sich schon ein neuer aus Frankreich im Südwesten in das Bundesgebiet. Die stärksten individuellen Gewitter in diesem Cluster sind, wie es normal ist für solche Gruppierungen von Gewittern, derzeit am südlichen Rand zu finden.

Es ist heute viel Potential in der Luft, und viele Orte entlang der route der Gewitter von Südwest nach Nordost werden heute nochmals Höchstwerte über 30°CC, zum Teil auch 36°C, erreichen.

Das ermöglicht es den Gewittern zu kräftigen Unwettern heranzuwachsen. Die Hauptgefahren sind unter anderem Sturm- oder Orkanböen bis 100 oder sogar 125km/h, Hagel mit einem Durchmesser von bis zu 5-8cm, Starkregen (Regenraten bis 40 liter in einer Stunde) und ein erhöhtes Potential sogar für starke Tornados.

Die Unwetter werden die nötige Energie besitzen um bis tief in die Nacht durchzuhalten, manche sogar bis in die Morgenstunden des Donnerstags.