Posted on

2017.02.12 – Forecast for Rabat

TODAY it will be mostly cloudy most of the day, with only occasional patches of sunshine in the morning. At around noon, rain is expected to start falling, which will increase in intensity throughout the afternoon and be strongest in the evening. At the same time, the wind will start picking up, and is ultimately expected to reach storm force in the evening, with gusts around 75km/h. Embedded in the clouds may be some thunderstorms, in which case the weather to be expected may temporarily become more intense. The temperatures are starting off at around 15 degrees Celsius this morning, and are expected to reach up to 19 degrees before dropping down to around 10 degrees by the evening.

TOMORROW morning there will still be some rain from the front that passes through tonight, but later the clouds will dissipate and there will be sunshine. Some showers will linger over and around Rabat, though, so occasional periods of rain cannot be ruled out, especially towards the evening. Thunderstorms are possible. The wind will continue to be quite lively, gusting to up to 50km/h, and the temperatures will range from 6 to 16 degrees.
On TUESDAY, sunshine will dominate, and only few clouds and no precipitation are predicted. The wind will be very light, although picking up a bit in the evening. The temperatures will start off at 11 Centigrade in the morning, and reach up to 20 deg. C in the afternoon.
TREND:
Wednesday: Sunny, 11 to 21C
Thursday: Sunny, 10 to 22C
Friday: Sunny, 11 to 22C
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 11 to 21C
Sunday: Sunny, 11 to 22C
Monday: Sunny, 12 to 22C
Tuesday: Sunny, 12 to 21C
Posted on

2017.02.11 – Forecast for Rabat

This morning there is still a mix of clouds and sunshine, but at around rain is expected to move in from the ocean and persist through the afternoon. Towards the evening, there may be breaks in the rain and even some patches of sunshine. For the first half of the day, the wind is largely light, but in the afternoon it is expected to pick up a bit. The temperatures are starting off at 11 degrees, and will reach up to 18 deg. C later in the day.

Thunderstorms are possible.

TOMORROW will again start off with both clouds and sunshine, but in the afternoon rain is expected to move in. At the same time, the wind will significantly pick up, with gusts reaching 75km/h (storm force) or above. The temperatures will start off at 14 degrees and are expected to reach a maximum of around 21 Centigrade.
Thunderstorms are possible.
On MONDAY it will be cloudy, but there will also be some sunshine, and occasional rain showers and thunderstorms are also to be expected. The wind will be moderate, at times quite lively, but not as strong as on Sunday. The temperatures will range from 11 to 16 degrees Celsius.
Thunderstorms are likely.
TREND:
Tuesday: Sunny, 10 to 21C
Wednesday: Fair, 10 to 22C
Thursday: Mostly sunny, 11 to 22C
Friday: Sunny, 11 to 21C
Saturday: Sunny, 11 to 21C
Sunday: Sunny, 12 to 22C
Monday: Sunny, 13 to 22C
Posted on

2017.02.10 – Thunderstorm Probability for RABAT

This is experimental; in this case, I used numerical forecast models to predict the most difficult to predict storms: thunderstorms. You cannot forecast individual thunderstorms, our technology isn’t that advanced yet, but you can say how likely thunderstorms are to form, where they would form, and what their main risks will likely be.
Below, I will try to outline some of the time periods during which thunderstorms are possible or even likely in the near future:

Fri, 20:00 – Sat, 13:00: Increased chance of thunderstorms

Sun, 22:00 – Mon, 10:00: Increased chance of thunderstorms
Mon, 10:00 – Mon, 12:00: Thunderstorms likely
Mon, 12:00 – Mon, 17:00: Thunderstorms possible
Wed, 17:00 – Wed, 21:00: Thunderstorms possible
Thu, 06:00 – Thu, 12:00: Thunderstorms possible
Thu, 12:00 – Thu, 15:00: Thunderstorms likely
Thu, 15:00 – Fri, 00:00: Thunderstorms likely, strong thunderstorms possible
Fri, 00:00 – Fri, 03:00: Thunderstorms possible
Sat, 15:00 – Sat, 18:00: Thunderstorms possible
Sat, 21:00 – Sun, 00:00: Thunderstorms possible
Posted on

2017.02.10 – Weather Forecast for RABAT

TODAY there will be a lot of clouds and also quite a bit of rain. The strongest rain is expected in the afternoon. The temperatures this morning are at around 12 degrees, and will not reach more than 15 degrees later in the day. The wind will start off quite lively this morning, but will weaken over the course of the day.

TOMORROW will bring us a mix of sun and clouds and many, in part strong, rain showers lingering in the area and also moving across the city. It will be fairly windy, and the temperatures are expected to range from 6 to 18 degrees Celsius. Thunderstorms ARE possible, especially in the hours around sunrise.
On SUNDAY, the sky will stay overcast pretty much all day long, and rain that might be quite strong over longer periods of time is expected to fall for much of the day. The wind will be quite strong, with gusts reaching up to 50km/h. At only 12 to 14 deg. C, it will stay very cool all day long.
TREND:

Monday: Fair, showers, 10 to 15C, windy
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, 12 to 21C
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, 13 to 21C, windy
Thursday: Thunderstorms, 11 to 20C, windy
Friday: Sunny, 12 to 20C
Saturday: Thunderstorms, 10 to 18C, windy
Sunday: Fair, 12 to 18C
Posted on

2017.02.09 – Forecast for RABAT

Although currently it is fairly sunny, TODAY it will be mostly cloudy with only patches of sunshine, and towards the evening the wind will gradually start to pick up. It’s fairly chilly this morning, the temperature being only 4 degrees Celsius, but nonetheless up to 21 deg. C are to be expected later in the day. Precipitation is not forecast.

TOMORROW will bring us quite a bit of rain, which might be fairly heavy at times. It will be completely overcast for most of the day, only in the evening there might be some breaks in the rain with intermittent sunshine. The wind will be light, and the temperatures very cold at only 8 to 12 degrees.
On SATURDAY it will mostly continue to be rainy, but in the afternoon the clouds will start dissipating and there will be more sunshine, although rain showers will persist. The wind will be moderate all day long and is forecast to further pick up in the evening. Temperatures will start off at 9 degrees in the morning and are forecast to reach a maximum of up to 19 Centigrade.
TREND:
Sunday: Rain, 13 to 21C, windy
Monday: Rain showers, 8 to 15C, windy
Tuesday: Fair, 12 to 21C
Wednesday: Fair, 16 to 25C
Thursday: Fair, showers, 12 to 22C
Friday: Mostly sunny, 12 to 21C
Saturday: Showers, 13 to 19C
Posted on

Strong Rainfall expected in Western Mediterranean

An upper low pressure system is expected to move over the western Mediterranean today and tomorrow, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms with partly extreme amounts of rain. The upper low will advect cold air from much further north to the Mediterranean, where the temperature difference between the surface of the ocean and the cold air up in the atmosphere will fuel the formation of showers and thunderstorms.

Geopotential and temperature at the 500hPa level. Map by wetter3.de

 

The first showers and thunderstorms have started forming around the balearic islands. The center of the low pressure system is expected to gradually move towards the east, being located between Sardinia and Tunisia in the coming night, and so the rain will also move east. The rain is rotating counter-clockwise around the center of the low, and is expected to push against the north African coast from the north, and the mountains of Corsica from the east, resulting in the highest amounts of precipitation being expected there. Within two days, well over 100 liters of rain per square meter may fall in these regions, as seen on the map below:

Accumulated precipitation until Friday, 00UTC (48 hours from init), as predicted by the “HD Deutschland” numerical model of Kachelmannwetter
Expected precipitation in Corsica within init+48h until 00UTC on Friday. Deutschland HD numerical model of Kachelmannwetter
Posted on

2017.02.08 – Forecast for RABAT, Morocco

TODAY there will be a lot of sunshine and especially in the second half of the day, no or close to no clouds are expected. The temperatures this morning are at around 11 degrees Celsius, but are expected to reach up to 19 degrees later in the day. The wind will be mostly light, in the evening moderate.

TOMORROW will start off quite sunny, but then clouds will start moving in and it will be cloudy with patches of sunshine in the afternoon. Nonetheless, at 12 to 21 deg. C, it will be warmer than today, and except around sunrise and sunset the wind will be light.
On FRIDAY the sky is expected to stay overcast for more or less the entire day, and (in parts strong) rain is predicted. The temperatures will start off at only 7 degrees Centigrade, and not reach values above 12 degrees. The wind will still be mostly light, however.
TREND:
Saturday: Rainy, 11 to 22C, windy
Sunday: Rainy, thunderstorms in the evening, 11 to 17C, windy
Monday: Sunny, showers in the evening, 9 to 16C
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, 10 to 17C
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, 9 to 19C
Thursday: Fair, 9 to 21C
Friday: Sunny, 13 to 22C
Posted on

2017.02.07 – Powerful Mistral in the Western Mediterranean

A powerful Mistral raged in the Western Mediterranean yesterday. The Mistral is a powerful wind that moves south through the valley of the river Rhone and out onto the Mediterranean, caused by significantly lower air pressure at one end of the valley compared to the other. Currently, a low pressure area is located over Italy, providing the exact conditions necessary for the formation of a mistral – you can clearly see the low pressure system on the 00UTC UK Met Office ground analysis:

Peak gusts in southern France and the gulf of Lyon reached hurricane force, with one station reporting 161km/h. The Mistral has largely dissipated since yesterday.

Posted on

2017.02.07 – Weather Forecast for Rabat, Morocco

TODAY will bring us a mix of clouds and sunshine. The day is starting off fairly cloudy and at temperatures of around 9 degrees Celsius, but in the coming hours a lot more sunshine is expected, which will help the temperatures reach up to 21 deg. C. Throughout the afternoon and especially in the evening the cloud cover will increase again; precipitation is not to be expected, though.

The air will become increasingly unstable in the coming night as a cold from approaches from the Ocean, and tomorrow morning there may be strong rain showers or even thunderstorms.
TOMORROW morning will start off with some strong rain showers and a few thunderstorms in the region, which are expected to have dissipated by around 9:00. For the rest of the day, sunshine is forecast, little to no clouds, and no precipitation. The temperatures will reach from 8 to 19 degrees Celsius.
THURSDAY will start off quite sunny, but from noon onwards there will be more and more clouds. Precipitation isn’t expected, however. It will be quite warm, with temperatures rising from 10 degrees in the morning to up to 22 in the afternoon, and with only light wind.
TREND:
Friday: Rain, 8 to 15C
Saturday: Rainy, 11 to 20C, windy
Sunday: Showers, 12 to 19C, windy
Monday: Fairy, showers, 12 to 16C, windy
Tuesday: Fair, showers, 11 to 17C
Wednesday: Thunderstorm, 13 to 18C
Thursday: Rainy, 13 to 16C, windy
www.milk-weather.org
Posted on

Massive Storm in the Atlantic

A massive storm is currently moving through the northern Atlantic, with a central pressure of 929hPa and wind gusts exceeding 200km/h at its southern flank. The storm is expected to move towards the northeast and bring storm gusts of over 100km/h to large parts of the UK and Ireland.
The current satellite image gives us a stunning view of the storm: